Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator falls slightly
19. August 2010. | 06:47 06:59
Source: Emg.rs, MIA
The results of the survey were compiled from questions submitted to 1,103 experts in 116 countries. The questionnaire focused on assessments of a country's general economic situation and expectations regarding important economic indicators.The World Economic Climate indicator fell in North America and in Asia but rose in Western Europe. In North America the indicator fell below its long-term average.
The Ifo World Economic Climate clouded over slightly in the third quarter of 2010. Although the surveyed experts have given better assessments of the current economic situation than in the first half of 2010, the economic expectations for the coming six months have been revised downwards.
The results indicate that the recovery of world economic activity will continue at a slower pace in the second half of the year.
The world economy continued its rebound from the worst recession in decades, according to the quarterly ICC/Ifo World Economic Survey released on Wednesday, but at a slower pace. The survey concluded that "some regions, notably North America and Asia, saw slowing growth and there was a marked difference in growth prospects among regions."
Worldwide, the economic climate indicator fell slightly, from 104.1 in the second quarter of 2010 to 103.2 in the third quarter. This was largely the result of a decline in the indicator numbers in two important regions, North America and Asia. But the overall figures still show a substantial gain from the third quarter of 2009, when the world economy indicator stood at 79.6.
The recovery in North America, however, seems to be losing steam. The report notes that "stubbornly high unemployment in the US, coupled with weak private consumption and capital expenditures, led to an outlook rated less than satisfactory by the experts polled.
"The US Federal Reserve, having already lowered interest rates to near zero, recently indicated it may now reinvest the proceeds from maturing securities in long-term government bonds, a reversal of its previous policy. The Canadian economy, while currently rated satisfactory, is expected to slow later in the year."
In Asia the ICC's survey found indications of a slowing in the Chinese economy. While China's growth rate remains impressive, a recent slackening in retail sales and a weakening of imports, along with the government's withdrawal of an expansionary monetary policy, point to a cooling economy in the months to come. Elsewhere in Asia, a favorable economic climate prevails in Thailand, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, with capital expenditures, private consumption and exports in these countries projected to pick up further.
The African economy shows sharp contrasts between a positive outlook for South Africa, Kenya and other countries and a weakening scenario for Tanzania, Gabon and Madagascar. South Africa received a boost from hosting the World Cup, and its private consumption and exports are expected to show further improvement, though capital expenditures, which were largely linked to World Cup construction, are projected to level out.
The survey also highlighted responses to a question concerning the outlook for cross-border trade and investment. It showed that "private consumption, which is key to growth in these fields, remained weak, impacted by high rates of unemployment."
It also found that another factor limiting trade was the "lack of access to trade finance in countries such as Spain, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania. This has been a subject of particular concern to ICC. These factors – added to protectionist pressures in countries such as Germany, Denmark and Norway – are contributing to the cloudy outlook for trade and investment."
The World Economic Climate indicator fell in North America and in Asia but rose in Western Europe. In North America the indicator fell below its long-term average. The assessments of the current economic situation were more favourable than in the previous survey but have not yet reached the “satisfactory” level.
The expectations for the coming six months, however, are less optimistic. In Asia the favourable economic situation has improved further, but the optimism for the next half year has declined somewhat. In Western Europe the assessments of the current economic situation have improved more clearly than the worldwide average. Since the six-month economic outlook has not clouded so strongly, the climate indicator as a whole rose marginally.
Although the economic experts foresee a somewhat higher rate of inflation for 2010, on a worldwide average, in comparison to the previous year (3.1% vis-à-vis 2.5%), in comparison to the previous survey the inflation expectations remain stable.
In accord with the somewhat cloudier economic outlook, somewhat fewer WES experts than in spring expect increasing short-term and long-term interest rates in the course of the coming six months.
In contrast to the previous surveys, the euro was assessed as slightly undervalued vis-à-vis the US dollar. Overall, in the coming six months – after adjustments have occurred – the experts foresee largely stable exchange rates for the four major world currencies, the euro, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound.
The results of the survey were compiled from questions submitted to 1,103 experts in 116 countries. The questionnaire focused on assessments of a country's general economic situation and expectations regarding important economic indicators.
The quarterly World Economic Survey is conducted by the Munich-based Ifo Institute in cooperation with ICC (International Chamber of Commerce – based in Paris). It provides rapid, up-to-date assessments of the economic situation prevailing worldwide.