Gerard Gallucci, retired US diplomat and former UN Regional Representative in Kosovska Mitrovica, considers that 2012 may be the year that the north Kosovo issue is resolved, or maybe 'resolved.'

The possibility of continued stalemate remains and the danger of renewed conflict cannot be excluded, Gallucci says in his article 'Kosovo - what 2012 might bring'' posted Tuesday on the web-site of TransConflict - an organization established in response to the challenges facing intra- and inter-ethnic relations in the Western Balkans.

Various factors, however, suggest a strong effort to remove north Kosovo as an element of contention between Serbia and the Western powers, Gallucci says.

"Discounting further efforts to impose a solution by force – which would most likely lead to partition – the likely outcome will be associating the four northern municipalities to the government in Pristina through some form of a special status elaborated from the Ahtisaari Plan. Full recognition of Kosovo by Serbia remains unlikely for now," Gallucci says.

He considers that Serbian policy on Kosovo is being driven primarily by an almost desperate effort to gain EU candidacy. It is anchored, however, by a constitutional and political inability to simply give Kosovo away.

"This is unlikely to change no matter who wins the upcoming parliamentary – and later presidential – elections," he says.

Under the influence of Washington and Berlin, the EU will more likely continue to use candidacy as a stick rather than a carrot, Gallucci says.

In the course of his career Gallucci worked as part of US efforts to resolve the conflicts in Angola, South Africa and Sudan and as Director for Inter-American Affairs at the National Security Council. He served as UN Regional Representative in Mitrovica, Kosovo from July 2005 until October 2008 and as Chief of Staff for the UN mission in East Timor from November 2008 until June 2010. Gerard is also a member of the TransConflict's Advisory Board.