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WEF names global risks of coming decade

14. January 2012. | 09:22

Source: Voice of Russia

According to the 2012 Global Risks report made by the experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) much of the world is to face dystopia: the opposite of utopia in the coming ten years, where life will be full of hardship and devoid of hope, as a constellation of fiscal, demographic and societal risks converge. The list of main risks includes mass protests, water and food deficit, unemployment and cyber attacks.

According to the 2012 Global Risks report made by the experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) much of the world is to face dystopia: the opposite of utopia in the coming ten years, where life will be full of hardship and devoid of hope, as a constellation of fiscal, demographic and societal risks converge. The list of main risks includes mass protests, water and food deficit, unemployment and cyber attacks.

Ahead of the World Economic Forum summit which is traditionally to be held in Davos in late January, the international organization interviewed almost 500 experts from industry, government, academia and civil society to compile its Global Risks report. They were asked to evaluate 50 global risks across five categories – economic, environmental, geopolitical, social and technological – to formulate its conclusions. The experts made their evaluations using a 5 point scale where 1 point meant that the given risk is almost ruled out and 5 points - that this risk will have almost a 100% impact on our society.

The results of the interviews can hardly be called sensational. Last year’s event could not be ignored by the experts. The list of the main risk includes 'severe income disparity' and 'chronic fiscal imbalances'. The recent events which come to mind immediately are the Arab Spring in North Africa and Middle East, the Occupy Wall Street campaign in the US, the European debt crisis and the US budget crisis. The interviewed experts noted that protests and change of power may take place in developed and successful countries and the protesters won’t necessarily belong to the poor. We hear from a political analyst Pavel Svyatenkov.

"Most of these challenges can be united in one linked with globalization. It is absolutely clear that the world is becoming a more integrated space than it was even 100 years ago. New classes and social groups which are emerging now are associated with countries but with technologies, businesses and a certain level of freedom and prosperity. Most of these states fail to meet the standards forced by the global elite. These countries cannot give their people the things they want right now under the influence of advertising and propaganda."

The list of potential global threats also includes a water supply crisis and cyber attacks. Via the Internet, malefactors can attack strategic facilities such as nuclear power plants for example. Nevertheless the social sphere includes higher risks such as low income of most of the population and unemployment. Retired people fear for their pensions while young people are losing access to higher education, which is too expensive for them and have no prospects for the future. Sergey Smirnov, an expert with the Higher School of Economics draws attention to other issues as well.

"Income disparity and the growing aggression from poorer nations, which usually do not represent Christianity, are global problems which cannot be ignored. These problems must be resolved depending on the situation. I don’t believe that there are any general models which can be applied to any situation."

The experts also note that governments will have to adapt more quickly to technological, social and global changes. The main thing is not to go into extremes such as isolationism and nationalism.

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