Euro banks "need 300b euros capital"
16. October 2011. | 10:00
Source: MIA
New bank stress tests that Europe's banking regulator may undertake could reveal the need to inject nearly 300 billion euros ($410 billion) into lenders, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.
New bank stress tests that Europe's banking regulator may undertake could reveal the need to inject nearly 300 billion euros ($410 billion) into lenders, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.
Analysts at the US investment bank ran a simulation using the macroeconomic assumptions the European Banking Authority used in its summer stress tests, while reducing value of bond holdings of weakened eurozone states.
Goldman Sachs estimated losses of 60 per cent on Greek bonds, 40 per cent on Irish and Portuguese bonds, and 20 per cent on Italian and Spanish bonds.
It also required banks to have core capital buffer of nine percent, the higher level the EBA plans to require European banks to hold according to a European source.
Sixty-eight of the 91 banks the EBA reviews would fail the test, showing a capital shortfall of 298 billion euros, Goldman Sachs said.
Even major French and German banks would be tripped up by such a test.
France's BNP Paribas would need 13.0 billion euros in capital, Societe Generale 11.6 billion while Germany's Deutsche Bank would need 12.2 billion and Commerzbank 10.7 billion.
Goldman Sachs said bank recapitalisations alone would not solve the eurozone's problems, but needed "to be accompanied by simultaneous policy action aimed at steadying the value of sovereign debt."
Without sovereign debt regaining its risk free status "the bank sector will remain destabilised in our view."
The EBA has confirmed it is collecting updated information from banks but not that it is carrying out new tests, let alone what scenario would be used.
European officials are working on a scenario of a 50 per cent haircut on Greek but there has been no talk of restructuring debt from any other eurozone countries.
Credit Suisse analysts said Thursday they estimated the recapitalisation needs of European banks at 221 billion euros after running similar calculations, AFP reported.
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