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Ratings plunge, indexes bounce

09. October 2011. | 06:58

Source: Voice of Russia

Global stock markets have ended up in the green, despite a slight sagging in the middle of the week. However, despite bouncing back into the green, stabilization is as far as ever, with fears over Greece still strong and Moody’s downgrading of Italy’s and Portugal’s ratings to an all-time low.

Global stock markets have ended up in the green, despite a slight sagging in the middle of the week. However, despite bouncing back into the green, stabilization is as far as ever, with fears over Greece still strong and Moody’s downgrading of Italy’s and Portugal’s ratings to an all-time low.

Another week on the stock markets smacked of déjà vu, with the specter of Greek default continuing to haunt Europe. The EU authorities have been stubbornly repeating that Athens will hold out against the crisis and will remain in the Eurozone. And with negative prospects in mind, investors have embarked on selloffs, as is usually the case.

The long-lasting epic over the Greek debts took a dramatic twist this week. Greece was to receive another EU bailout package last month but experts from the European Commission, the EU Central Bank and the IMF said that they were dissatisfied with the pace of anti-crisis measures and would release another EUR8bln in aid only at the beginning of November. Jean-Claude Juncker says that Athens has enough money to service its debt. But investors are tired of hearing it over and over again. They need specific moves. Otherwise, markets take a dip again. Yelena Kozhukhova of the Aton Investment Company, comments.

"Reports to the effect that Greece will be able to avoid default have triggered a cautious response from investors. There are no clear signs of improvement. Notably, Greece can pay its debts for only one month, till the end of October, which is not a lot."

Meanwhile, the outlook for the Eurozone is getting gloomier. Portugal’s Central Bank downgraded the GDP’s forecasts for 2012 and the Portuguese authorities expect a more than 2% decline. Standard&Poor’s has reaffirmed its negative forecasts for Portugal’s debt ratings. And Moody’s has moved Italy’s bond ratings down three notches, with a negative outlook.

The banking sector saw a major blow as Moody’s downgraded the ratings of nearly three dozen companies on Friday. Among these were 12 British banks, including Lloyds TSB and Royal Bank of Scotland, 9 Portuguese and two Italian – UniCredit and Intesa. The market’s reaction was laggard, says Alexander Laputin of the Otkrytiye Broker House.

"All this had to be expected. Ratings agencies normally slash rating with a delay. Their estimates are more perfunctory than meaningful for investors."

As for a positive outlook, Standard&Poor’s maintained the ratings of Britain, Denmark and Sweden at AAA. Markets rebounded by the end of the week on positive data and assurances from the financial authorities. The European Central Bank decided to pursue the program of acquiring EUR40bln worth of problem bonds.

Experts warn, however, that there are no grounds for so much optimism. Goldman Sachs and Standard&Poor’s analysts assess chances for a lasting recession in Europe at 40%.

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