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Raiffeisen: CEE countries to see 2.3% economic growth in 2012

07. October 2011. | 09:15

Source: Dnevnik.bg

The average gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries will slow to 2.3 per cent in 2012, but still the rate will be higher than that expected for the euro zone, Raiffeisen Centrobank said in a report on the economies in the region.

The average gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries will slow to 2.3 per cent in 2012, but still the rate will be higher than that expected for the euro zone, Raiffeisen Centrobank said in a report on the economies in the region.

In 2011, the region's GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2 per cent on average, but stock markets are likely to remain affected by the shaky global economic environment.

The forecast for slower economic growth next year has been triggered by the debt crisis in the euro zone which is pointing to a period of recession.

"The currently very uncertain situation in the euro zone has negative ramifications for Central and Eastern Europe," Peter Brezinschek, head of Raiffeisen Research, said.

Brezinschek projects that the euro zone's GDP will grow by 1.6 per cent in 2011 and just 0.2 per cent in 2012. The analyst also forecasts that the CEE region will likely continue its catch-up process towards the euro zone with a positive growth differential of 1.5 to two percentage points till 2015.

CEE countries are dependent on the euro zone mainly because of their trade relations, as 85 per cent of CEE total exports go to the EU. The region is also susceptible to the turbulences within the European banking sector.

"In contrast to 2009, even in the event of Greek debt restructuring accompanied by Draconian consolidation measures and banking system recapitalisation, we do not expect contractions in production on the order of what was seen in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy, provided that it proves possible to prevent contagion effects by implementing measures that restore confidence on the financial markets," Brezinschek said.

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