The biggest surprise in the revolutionary wave that swept past months across the Middle East are the latest developments in Libya, said today in an interview for FENA Hajrudin Somun, long-time reporter from the Middle East and former BH diplomat, an expert on the region.

Somun quotes famous British analysts who said that nobody could really predict that Gaddafi would fall in this manner.

“It's a big country with a relatively small population, with large oil revenues, full of foreigners who work there ... This means that some movements were happening which nobody was aware of, in the Arab world or outside it. This is an accumulated dissatisfaction of youth with the existing system”, says Somun.

Young men and women who revolted in Libya are two times younger than the Gaddafi regime in Libya.

However, he warned that Libya could enter a bloody tribal war. He referred to the British daily paper The Independent’s correspondent Robert Fisk, who Somun particularly respects and who in the past days visited all the countries affected by the insurgency. Specifically, Fisk reported today from Tripoli that a doctor said to him that Gaddafi was in fact "clinically insane".

“Anything could be expected from Gaddafi, but apparently he is not ready to commit suicide. East of the country is already in secession, while the West is still held by Gaddafi. Because of all this, this could evolve into something that did not occur in any other Arab country and this is a terrible and bloody account in which some tribal disagreements could surface”, said Somun.

Still, he admits that to him the events in the Middle East came as a surprise, similar to other observers who have stayed in that part of the world or observed it from outside.

“This is a big surprise. It could have been assumed that these rulers, dictators, sheiks, kings, various Saddams would have to go one day. Unlike any other region in the world, the Arab world is characterized by the largest number of dictators, large number of former military officers, of whom has ever retired!”, Said Somun.